Screen based experience design Vs. gesture and speech controlled augmented reality?
Remember this one? Video fabric is on the way
And this one? Projected cosmetics are also in development.
If you work at a public location, you may have noticed that disaster preparedness now includes gun related violence. Specifically mass murderers who use guns. The instructions for these scenarios are very simple. If you are not frozen with fear, they are the immediate actions that come to mind. So I’m not going to describe them. Instead, lets look at layers of security that progressively enhance location based protection against armed attackers.
I’m emphasizing layered security because each layer of redundancy adds a layer of authenticity to the defense and increases the cost for counter measures. Some attackers might be technical enough to counter one defense but if you have five it multiplies complexity.
Smart phone (personal fog and cloud based) defense strategy
A basic use of smart phones is to send out a text blast to everyone at the location. An enhanced text based strategy is to send a running stream of text messages. The next step would be to assign a security professional to handling each person in the effected area in real time. A constantly changing coordinated security response is harder for an attacker to predict than broadly based and static instructions.
An enhanced use of smart phones is an app dedicated to location security. App based communication adds a layer of authenticity to the communication. Phones have sensors.
Beyond basic communication, an app can use GPS to give professionals a headcount of potential people at risk and their location. An further enhanced app could use accelerometer sensors to give security professionals a real time map of moving people. Another layer of security can be provided by using the location sensors and the audio sensors from multiple phones to triangulate locations for gun shots.
If you can communicate with people at risk in real time, you know their locations, and you know where the gun shots are, you can offer a more coordinated evasion. Wearables are becoming more common. An emerging layer of security involves using apps to get heart rate data to locate injured people. As smart rings become more common, they will be used for priority communication and will be an ideal channel for communicating emergency information. If you are tracking the shooter, people in the risk zone could use their ring as a compass needle that buzzes in the direction of the attacker. Location embedded technology and it’s interaction with wearable technology allows for innovative combinations that can multiply security options.
Location based (fog and cloud based) defense strategy
The most effective technology against shooter mobility is probably smart door locks. Reducing the cost of these devices should be a priority for public safety officials. Even if a shooter is technically sophisticated, security enhanced doors can slow them down and save lives. A progressively enhanced smart door system would allow real time locking of unlocking doors to coordinate the flow of at risk people.
One of the easiest ways to divide of categories of location intelligence is detection and display. Detection can be as easy as networked cameras in hallways. Humans are good at reading pictures. This can be progressively enhanced with the wide variety of machine learning capabilities that are now available: various degrees of detection and tracking are available for objects, faces, eyes, emotion, actions, gate (body language), and clothing. This can offer information about intruders, unusual patterns of behavior, who might be armed, and the general mood of the location. This could be considered Orwellian, but regular uses could be pointed toward prosocial goals like enhancing positive emotional environments and experiences, helping traffic busy people through hallways or helping lost people. Start Trek’s Next Generation such as the conversational computer and Holodeck offers normative examples of a positive smart location. In 2001 HAL’s paranoia is negative, but in a security situation a paranoid self aware location AI could save lives.
Microphone information and speech recognition allows for speech analysis and sentiment tracking based on keyword. This sensor layer would be great at gunshot detection but could also offer noise pollution information that could be useful to day to day operations.
Location based display is another important security tool. Smart lights could be used strategically to confuse attackers or lead victims out of danger zones. Smart LED lights in rooms and hallways could add a layer of signaling to this channel.
A smart fuse box could be used strategically. The immediate use of heating and cooling could be used to undermine an attacker. A PA system can be used to to psychologically manipulate a threat. An attacker may not have trained in a yoga hot room in a rave light show with some one playing with a radio dial on full blast, while their real mother, a phone sex operator, their clergy and the “president of the united states” are psycho calling them.
It’s worth re-emphasizing that the same systems can be used to pipe in live ambience from a nearby bird sanctuary, offer updates on nearby lunch specials, and provide analytics for building facility managers to add comfort and well being.
The price of sequencing a complete human genome is now about $4-5,000 (with the price point on a steep downward trajectory expected to hit $1,000 and then $100). $1 and cheaper DNA sequences are expected within the next ten years. Humans shed thousands of skin cells every minute. We are DNA transmitters. So there can be no presumption of DNA privacy. There is a synthetic biology revolution 30 years behind the computer revolution. DNA can be printed like computer code.
Here is a random walk through the possibility space we live in.
The National Health Service in the UK is sequencing 100,000 citizens and wants to sequence the entire UK population. The NIH is doing a broad metadata study on DNA Environmental correlations on phenotype. There seems to be a compelling case for the WHO to fund a global genetic database. A complete genomic and associated health record of the human population, gives drug companies the ability to calculate the market value of treating each and every disease. Some orphan diseases may cross the threshold of profitability. New associations between genetic markers and health outcomes will be open to analysis.
With networked data on ancestry, a higher level study of phenotype and environment could identify similar correlations. Large surveys of ancestry networks and environmental impacts suggest a future where every grave in the world is mined for DNA data. With a complete genomic record of ancestry, humans will be able to instantly know the family relationship between themselves and every other human. The narcissism of small differences may lose value if people were able to see people from a neighboring tribe as being intimately related to themselves. People are more likely to trust relatives and trust allows for greater economic fluency. This is a compelling case for international organizations like the World Bank or United Nations to fund a global ancestry genomic database.
One reason that people are resistant to global genetic databases is the overuse and misuse of this data by security professionals. Law enforcement officials In the southern United States keep hundreds of thousands of DNA samples from convicted criminals. Crime labs in the USA spend billions on sequencing. They even collect of DNA from victims. Analytics driven smart policing using DNA augmented agent based models could offer a more scientific approach to the preemptive containment of criminals. (The USA already incarcerates a large part of its population based on trivial victimless crimes. One way of interpreting this policy is an effort to preemptively contain a high risk population based on a trivial but significant association.) Modern law enforcement operates under a social contract where is promises to only attack those guilty of specific crimes. If this contract is thrown away and replaced with a broader use of coercion it is a dramatic rebalance of power which has wide implications about political force, and legitimacy.
Your DNA is now part of your data exhaust (along with all the Google searches you ever made, your GPS record, every email you ever sent and etc). It will be sucked up by marketing firms, insurance companies, banks and security firms. The data will be used to make statistical predictions about your behavior and sold as widely as possible. Future employers, landlords, and loan officers will likely bypass privacy protection laws by requiring your permission to use this data as part of use conditions.
With network analysis, social footprints are becoming an important part of analytics. Your friends DNA and data exhaust will have an important impact on your possibility space in society. This multi node data exhaust model is now set in motions – the step beyond predictive analytics is agent based models. This technology uses your data exhaust to make an agent (polymorph, ghost, replicant) that represents your expected behavior pattern. Your agent is then run through a simulation millions of times to get a more accurate probability map of your decision space.
How can the cost benefit be balanced? When analytics removes uncertainty it frees up resources. How are these resources distributed? Are there other ways to offset risk besides the over use of force and incarceration? It would be extremely unfortunate to let negative externalities shape the debate when the up side is significant.
P.S. A quick look at physical cloning.
Project Einstein is sequencing 400 math geniuses. China is sequencing 1600 gifted children. This trend to capture and compare the genotypes of great minds is compelling. People buying eggs for invitro may want to increase the chances of having an above average baby. Taking this idea further the name “Project EinStein” suggests the quest to sequence all the great minds of history. Why wouldn’t every state power or infertile couple want to kickstart their own Einstein or Napoleon? Or a cocktail containing significant qualities of both? An attack on the ability to patent human DNA may impact the commercial yields of this area as study, but a DIY peer-to-peer effort in this area could be compelling. Some are already concerned about state efforts to engineer its populations genetics.
Jailbreaking classic sculptures from museums using 3D scanning and 3D printing is a new trend in the art world, and Google Glass is the latest tech in the game. Most people are not aware that 3D scanning has become cheap and easy, and can even be stitched together from photographs.
As this trend continues, designers can/weill save time by capturing and manipulating real places and people in their work. Are you ready to be scanned into a videogame? Are you ready for your online presence to be aggregated into a data mashup? When will we hear about a stalker scanning someone into lifelike doll?
“Our data suggest that biological systems may never be in equilibrium at all, with groups expanding and contracting under persistent and rather, geologically speaking, rapid change.” Check the latest test of Red Queen theory described in physorg.
“Fluid Mechanics Explains Cosmology, Dark Matter, Dark Energy, and Life” uses new trends in turbulence (a reverse of the emphasis of large to small cascades) to offer a new theory of the universe and the origins of life. I love it when scientists dare to be wildly speculative and Journal of Cosmology never disappoints.
I strongly recommend Professor Timothy Morton’s iTunes University podcast lectures from UC Davis – if you like grand mal freestyle mindplay on the philosophical political aesthetics of ecology and romantic poetry.
I just read an interview with 1970’s film gurus George Lucas and Steven Spielberg predict that VOD is the future. This is something that they could have safely predicted in the 1970s. So I thought I would add a few more obvious observations on tech trends for the film industry. Where to begin? I think I will start with games before moving to piracy and maker culture.
Games: The above interview includes an old school chauvinist film bias that video games cannot provide an emotional experience. Some might flip that around and say that film action can be less engaging than game action and that Hollywood should retrofit every classic movie with game play levels. Alternately, there are a wide range of ways to increase emotional engagement in games. One way to bring life to video games is to hire live actors from around the world to perform within video game worlds. Live haunted houses make use of live actors and actresses, and are forced to pay them first world prices. There are obvious wage asymmetries around the world that can bring a live cast into a video game world for pennies on the dollar. Another obvious way to bring human emotion into a video game world is to populate games with friends and families. Warcraft Guilds and Modern Warfare networked game play already demonstrates the emotional power of this type of engagement. With dramatic game design that allows for multiple overlapping objectives this type of play can be broadened into a wider emotional range. If you put this style of game onto an AR LARP platform that includes fantastical graphical layers on video chat feeds or real world environments we could have types of cinematic costume parties with stylized emotional games. If you put this type of game play onto a social graph and interest graph you could drive social collision in fantastical dramatic emotional cinematic ways. Film directors and dramatic improv directors have an advantage for this type of game design. They are expert at motivation and think in terms of drama. Film industry refugees should keep this mind.
Piracy: There are no closed systems in nature. Data attack outpaces data defense. As the information age progresses the free flow of data becomes cheaper than restricting the flow of data.
If you went to the “What’s Next?” event at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences a few years ago, you would have heard the former head of technology for the NSA warn the industry. 20th century premium content IP monetization based on creating a huge demand (marketing) and limited supply (limited release windows) is obsolete. Using coercion to defend an obsolete IP monetization model is expensive and has limited range. Attacking attackers (even false targets like distribution rival Megaupload) has limited range. Premium display like 3D IMAX and dome projection cannot compete with emerging domestic consumer display. A head mounted display like Vizux goggles can emulate a 1000 foot tall movie screen. Movie studios are stultified by the inertia of tradition and guild contracts. Meanwhile super agile mafia capitalists and bored hackers can and will hijack any networked IP and will iterate new ways of slicing dicing and mashing up the data into get rich quick schemes. Tom Cruise doesn’t want his likeness in herpes medication or machine gun ads? Guess what? The Russian mafia does not care, Nigerian teenagers with advanced coding skills don’t care. Contracts prevent movie studios from chopping their film library into 1 million animated .Gifs with embedded bootleg viagra commercials? Some one else will get that money.
If the film industry wants to stay in the game they need to provide the best possible platform for their product. They need to aggressively compete within the possibility space on convenience, price, and utility. Anything less is death by a thousand cuts. Price and convenience for pirated content is free and instant. So that leaves utility.
Here is the big paradigm shift. Everyone in the modern world has a networked video camera in the pocket. Right now everyone wants to be able to create premium content with their camera. Everyone wants to be a movie star. Right now the toolset that bridges the gap between Youtube garbage and slick TV and Cinematic productions does not exist. However it will exist. Templates and software to bump up the quality of smart phone videos are an emerging trend. One way for premium content creators to increase the footprint of their productions is to feed maker culture. Use their premium product as a magnet for makers. Fuel their fan fiction. Give them templates. Host their home made videos. Use premium product as a social collision machine to inspire more makers. Offer 3d files for all the films elements online. Offer chatbots of all the main characters. There are a wide range of apps that can bridge the gap between amatuer maker productions and pro content. Trends across all digital media are directed toward ease of use and universality. A feature film or reality TV program can inspire thousands and thousands of hours of free content and user engagement. See the above examples of dramatic game play to increase the engagement and flow of maker drama.
So far these ad hoc self assembling maker-culture initiatives have been chaotically flowing around premium content. Studios have been forced to ignore them. Perhaps they will be ignored to the end. Or perhaps they will become a more active part of the monetization.
If the collapse of the music industry and the print industry is any indication of the future….
The real path forward is — premium Film and TV content as gamification storification maker toolkit.